OK, not just for Ramsbottom, although rumour has it that it could be renamed to “Ramsbottom Summer” predictor (da-dum-tish).
Last year, the BBC reported that scientists have “found a connection between sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in March and April and the subsequent summer’s rain or shine.”
What does this mean for us I hear you say. Upon review of the paper, it states that the predictability of getting soaked whilst cooking food next to our rusty infrequently used barbecues is around 56% (0.56 where 1 is would be a perfect prediction and 0 would be just a guess).
If this becomes commonplace, this could change everything. Festivals would be prepared for bad weather in much more realistic ways to avoid a repeat of the Y Festival last year as well as better stocking of items in local shops such as sunhats if we’re going to have a great summer or fancy umbrellas for the expected rain.
Not just tourism though…
Additionally, it will also be a benefit for agriculture, not just tourism, but tourism is the more fun of the two.
One of the scientists on the paper Dr Osso was quoted as saying: “I think it could become a standard procedure and I think it can help to improve the numerical forecast”.
I’m really looking forward to this becoming commonplace. Currently just shove my finger in the air or review historic weather like I’ve done previously for the Cake Festival in 2015
What do you think? Is this knowing too much, or could this be a bigger change than people realise?
If you want to, you can review the paper in full here: Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring
Leave a Reply